Latest Articles
It’s a big week for Central Banks: the BOJ on Tuesday, The Fed on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday… but none of them are set to ease rates (the BoJ might even hike). It’s a very different market to what traders expected earlier this year. This is becoming the Year of Normalisation.
It’s a big week for Central Banks: the BOJ on Tuesday, The Fed on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday… but none of them are set to ease rates (the BoJ might even hike). It’s a very different market to what traders expected earlier this year. This is becoming the Year of Normalisation.
There has been much noise about the potential impact on global supply chains due to the shipping attacks in the Red Sea. There are imposing significant costs and delays – but are not as critical as many fear. Financing global trade is one of the oldest businesses in markets – and produces dull, boring predictable returns. What’s not to like…
The US is in a tizz about banning TikTok, taking the first steps towards protectionism, censorship and trade war – which will ultimately benefit no one. Both the US and China face significant economic challenges, and both are large markets. Is conflict the only choice?
Boeing is my pick as the worst company on the planet. Its’ stock is down 30% this year. It has failed multiple corporate governance challenges, but is also a victim of QE over-easy monetary policy: ultra-low interest rates enabled its cost-accountant management to wreck the company. Can it recover?
The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.
Apple doesn’t look so Magnificent these days. It’s made lots of money, but faces lots of challenges. It doesn’t look likely to lead in AI. It’s hardly a growth stock – it’s a mere value stock selling the same stuff it’s been selling for decades, while charging premium price to sell via its digital shopfront.
The US Primaries confirm its likely to be Biden vs Trump. While short-term markets don’t really care, it’s going to be a massive distraction and noise for investors deeply concerned at the future. While everyone else is panicked – that’s when opportunities emerge!
Blain Bites
Reaction and snap comments on current market headlines:
Original Headline:
Morning Porridge comment:
Quote of the Day:
“We had a proliferation of financial assets that you could borrow against; leverage went through the roof; complexity went through the roof. You could take a house, create a CDO [collateralised debt obligation], put a derivative on it and have a synthetic CDO squared. But somewhere — very tenuously — there was a house. What crypto does is that it gets rid of the need for the house.”
From: The Weekend Essay – What crypto (still) gets wrong
Well worth a read
Share this
Original Headline:
Morning Porridge comment:
It’s time to come clean and let you all in on my secret: I’m Satoshi Nakamoto and so is my dog, DeeJay.
Together my dog and I invented Bitcoin and all its accompanying BS on a damp afternoon, scribbling up the famous White Paper after a couple of cans of White Lightning cider. We have a note from my wife confirming we did – and that’s bound to stand up in court because she is sweet, blonde and Welsh.
Dr Craig Wright – who is currently in the UK High Court arguing he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the inventor of Bitcoin – is clearly a fraudster. Not only is he an Australian, but he looks like a bad-un. As are the US software developers (Crypto Open Patent Alliance) who say he didn’t invent bitcoin, but they did. They are American’s so who is going to listen to them? It should be abundantly clear to everyone that I am Satoshi Nakamoto, and so is my dog. Anyone who says otherwise will get a SLAPP.
Oh, and I seem to have forgotten the codes to the 20% of Bitcoin left untouched in the original Bitcoin wallets that are traceable to me, Satoshi Nakamoto… if anyone could help unlock them…?
Back in the real world.… Monty Python could not have written the script for the current London I’m Satoshi trial. It sums up the credibility of Bitcon…. which will no doubt hit new record levels based on the number of greater fools still to lose money on it!
Share this
Original Headline:
Morning Porridge comment:
Fusion Power by 2035?
I had to check the date, that it wasn’t April 1, when I read Ambrose Evans-Prichard in the Torygraph this morning (I always read the Torygraph – “to know what the enemy is thinking”). He says the UK may strike gold in the race for commercial Fusion – leading a quantum leap in superconductors, lasers and advanced materials that will enable it. The trick is superconductivity and magnetic power. It could become commercial by 2035 – about the time the UK’s new Gas power stations (a desperate recently announced measure to cope with delayed nuclear sites) kick in! This is real tech – if it happens, it will absolutely change the global energy equation.
Ambrose picks a great quote, from Lev Artsimovich, the Polish father of the Tokomak to finish on. When asked when fusion would come of age: “when humanity really needs it“. Now is the time.
Share this
Original Headline:
Morning Porridge comment:
A few weeks ago I wrote about Bitcoin ETFs, the coming “halfing” and the influence of whales on the market – predicting Bitcoin would rally despite its inherent pointlessness. I was spot on. So many things for the the shills to shill about! They have spurred a renewal of the spec bubble of hope and conflabulation that’s occured in the past; FOMO drives the demand. The bitcoin shysters are screaming about institutional adoption, mystery buyers, and rumours out of “El Salvador” that Qatar is a buyer… whatever…
Crypto may be pointless, but the trick is understanding how the market is trading it…. not whether it has any real utility. On that basis, there are still “greater fools” to be pulled in.
Share this
Latest articles in other media
Bill Blain is a leading market commentator. He regularly contributes articles and appears on mainstream financial media. Here is a selection of recent external articles and appearances.
Guest Posts
February 1, 2024
Crypto: The End is Nigh
Finally, I think the Bitcoin improbability bubble has burst.
December 15, 2023
European markets will suffer more than U.S. in 2024
Bill Blain says there will be risks during the fourth year of the U.S. presidential cycle, but more turbulence in Europe.
November 6, 2023
When everyone says “Sell China” it’s time to be looking at the opportunities!
The Chinese Economy looks awful. I challenge readers to find anything positive written about it in recent weeks.
Podcasts & Videos
March 15, 2023
Shard Capital Podcast: What happened with SVB, and what now?
Bill Blain, Strategist and Head of Alternative Assets is joined by Ernst Knacke as they discuss what exactly happened to Silicon Valley Bank and why markets have been affected by it.
March 13, 2023
Driving Better Client Outcomes: Futureproof your Strategic Asset Allocation
In this vodcast Ernst Knacke, Head of Research at Shard Capital discusses some of the longer-term macro trends investors should consider, their implications, and how investors should think about asset allocation.
March 9, 2023
Shard Capital Podcast: Talking AI with Sure Valley Ventures
In this week’s Shard Capital Lite-Bite Podcast, Bill Blain and Julian Wheeler from Shard Capital host a discussion on the impact of AI on big tech companies.
March 2, 2023
Shard Capital Podcast: Semiconductors?
In this week’s podcast, Ernst Knacke, Jacky NG and Julian from Shard Capital dive into the world of semiconductors, a vital component of modern technology.